As expected from my last update, Weeks 3 and 4 led to a bit of fading away from a splintering .810 picking average through the first two weeks of the season. In my challenge to pick the winner of every major college football game, I now stand at a combined 204-60 record, which translates into a .773 picking average so far.
For reference, here's the publicly viewable copy of the spreadsheet with my picks, and here's the spreadsheet where you can go ahead and...pick all the rest of the games this year, if you want, I guess.
My picking percentage hasn't dipped as far as I thought it would by this point. I lost almost 4 percentage points, but standing at this number after four weeks is pretty solid. We're now at the point in the season, though, where I'm rooting against some of my own picks -- as a couple of examples, I want Tennessee to lose to Georgia so Florida can still be in the SEC East race, and I want Louisville to beat Clemson because the Lamar Jackson Experience is really fun to watch.
For a conference breakdown, I'm 43-13 in the SEC, 45-9 (!) in the ACC, 38-11 in the Big 10, 36-12 in the Pac 12, 25-9 in the Big 12, and 17-6 in the General Interest category. Quickly beginning to wish I left most of these General Interest teams out of the equation.
I think at this point it's safe to lay out a baseline for what I'd consider a "successful" stab at picking all these games. I think if I finish with a .600 average or above, that's a good job; .650 would be awesome and .700 or higher would be genuinely baffling to me.
If anyone else out there actually did this, I'd love to hear about how your picks are performing.