I'm faring surprisingly well through my first two weeks of picking winners for every major college football game this year. Here's a publicly viewable spreadsheet with my most up-to-date results. And remember, here's the link to get this spreadsheet for yourself if you want to do this at home for any crazy reason.
So far, I have a 111-26 record with my predictions. That's pretty good I think! I'm 21-7 in the SEC, 23-5 in the ACC, 24-3 in the Big Ten, 18-5 in the Pac 12, and 15-4 in the Big 12. I'm 10-2 in the general interest column.
I had a few big Week 1 games correct, like 'Bama over USC, Florida State over Ole Miss and Houston over Oklahoma, but I also whiffed on a few of those, with Notre Dame losing to Texas, LSU losing to Wisconsin and UCLA losing to Texas A&M. In Week 2 I missed my pick when TCU lost to Arkansas, but there weren't a ton of other high-profile games to miss on. Oklahoma State's freak loss to Central Michigan is the type of thing you can't really see coming -- much like a bunch of programs that lost to FCS teams and contributed to my "incorrect" count. Thanks for nothing at all this year, Northwestern!
My record in the bigger games suggests that my current .810 picking percentage won't hold up. I'm especially nervous about UCLA, who I have finishing 10-2, and who currently look a bit like trash. We'll see how it goes, though. The first two weeks are filled with lots of big teams playing no-name programs that are always gimme games if you're just picking straight-up winners. I'm going to try to update this chart every two weeks, so here are a few of the big games I'm looking out for in Weeks 3 and 4.
In Week 3, I have Louisville over Florida State, Appalachian State over Miami, 'Bama over Ole Miss, Oregon over Nebraska, Texas A&M over Auburn, Notre Dame over Michigan State, Oklahoma over Ohio State, Stanford over USC, and Cal over Texas, which looks like a bad pick right now. I'm most worried about Oregon and App State here, though I realize that Louisville is a big of a long-shot as well.
In Week 4, I have Florida over Tennessee, Michigan State over Wisconsin, Oklahoma State over Baylor, Georgia over Ole Miss, Stanford over UCLA, and Texas A&M over Arkansas, to name a few. I would be most worried from that selection about Oklahoma State and Georgia, who were both unimpressive last week.
My playoff selections are looking okay so far. Houston really helped itself out by beating Oklahoma; they're also getting a lot of help from Louisville right now, who they have on the schedule later this year. If Louisville beats Florida State and has only one loss when they go to Houston (with that loss being against an undefeated Clemson team), then Houston should be in a good spot to make the playoffs if they win that game and don't lose anywhere else. Clemson has had a couple of rocky games, but I'm expecting them to improve, and we'll know a lot more about Stanford after Weeks 3 and 4. Bama is...still Bama. More updates coming on this in a couple of weeks!