I forgot to update this space two weeks ago after Week 6, to post my progress on how good/bad I am doing in my quest to predict the winner of every college football game this season.
My first check-in was after Week 2, when I had a scorching .810 picking percentage. After Week 4, that average dropped to .773 and I was pretty okay with that. Following that depreciation, I would expect my average now (after Week 8) to be .705, but I'm currently sitting at 368-137, which is .728.
I'm very happy with this, considering that I whiffed big on a few teams. Notre Dame and Stanford and Oregon are losing tons of games that I had them winning, and the ACC turned in some surprising performances, especially with Virginia Tech being awesome but still losing to Syracuse for no reason.
After Week 4, here's what I figured would be successful by year's end: "I think if I finish with a .600 average or above, that's a good job; .650 would be awesome and .700 or higher would be genuinely baffling to me." I think I'm on pace to be awesome, at least...but we'll see. Conference games are always tough to predict.
For reference, here's a publicly viewable copy of my spreadsheet and here's a public version of the spreadsheet that you can make a copy of if you feel like predicting the back half of the season.
Now, for fun, here are some teams I had a particularly good bead on this year:
Teams I'm perfect picking:
- Boston College
- Georgia Tech
- Michigan (a note: I am 1-6 picking Michigan State, lol)
- Penn State (100 emoji)
- Kansas, obviously
- South Florida
Teams I have one loss picking:
- Alabama (had em losing to Arky)
- Florida (had em beating Tenn)
- Missouri (had em beating Middle Tennessee State...c'mon y'all)
- South Carolina (had em losing to Vandy)
- Florida State (had em beating North Carolina)
- Pittsburgh (had em beating Oklahoma State)
- Minnesota (had em losing to Maryland)
- Ohio State (had em losing to Oklahoma...but I called that Penn State loss!)
- Purdue (had em losing to Illinois)
- Rutgers (had em beating Illinois...fucking Illinois)
- Colorado (had em losing to Oregon)
- Oregon State (had em losing to Cal)
- Southern Cal (had em beating Utah)
- Washington (had em losing to Oregon ... I am 2-5 picking Oregon games this year)
- Baylor (had em losing to Oklahoma State)
- Iowa State (had em beating UNI...smh)
- Oklahoma (had em beating Ohio State)
- TCU (had em beating Arkansas)
- Texas Tech (had em beating Kansas State)
- West Virginia (had em losing to BYU)
- Appalachian State (had em beating Miami heh)
- San Diego State (had em beating South Alabama)